Month: June 2024

Categories
Election Data Analysis Election Forensics Election Integrity mathematics technical

Identification of 2,502 Potential Matches of Active Voter Registrations Between FL and VA Voter Registration Lists

Building off of our previous work on computing the string distance between all possible pairs of registered voter records in a single state in order to identify potential matches, we’ve updated the code to allow for cross state comparisons. The first states that we ran this on was VA and FL, using the dataset produced by the FL Department of Elections on 05-07-2024, and the dataset from the VA department of elections dated 05-01-2024. There were a total of 2,502 records that matched our constraints between the FL and VA datasets, as detailed below.

Note: All examples of data records given in this writeup have been fictionalized to protect registered voter identities from being published on this website, and only serve as illustrative examples representative of the nature of properties and characteristics discussed. Law enforcement, election or other gov officials, or individuals otherwise authorized to receive and handle voter data as per VA law and the VA Department of Elections are welcome to contact us for specific details and further information.

Each dataset had the First Name, Middle Initial, Last Name, Suffix, Gender, and Year, Month and Day of Birth concatenated into strings that were then compared against each other using the Levenshtein String Distance measure as an initial filtering method to determine potential matches.

Additionally, for each pair we computed the minimum string distance measure between all of the four possible permutations of pairings between the Primary and Mailing addresses in each record between the states. We required that this minimum distance for a set of registration entries be less than or equal to 12 characters. The choice of the value of twelve was empirically determined after review of the data, as it is loose enough to allow for common variations in address presentation while not being so loose as to be overwhelmed with false positive.

We additionally filtered these findings for only those pairings that were of ACTIVE registrations in both datasets AND where the year, month and day of birth were exact matches.

In summary the 2,502 matches were generated according to the following constraints:

  • Only applied to ACTIVE voter registrations
  • Required completed DOB (year, month and day) to exactly match
  • Required [First Name + Middle Initial + Last Name + Suffix + Gender + DOB] strings to be similar to within <=2 characters
  • Required that the minimum distance between any pairwise combination of the Primary or Mailing address between the records be less than or equal to 12 characters.

It should be noted that it is readily apparent from reviewing the potential matched records that the majority of these matches look to have originated in FL and then were subsequently moved to VA, but the FL record remained listed as active.

Category 1 Matches:

There were 698 matches in Category 1: where the Levenshtein distance measure for the name and DOB was equal to 0 (exact match) and the minimum address distance was also 0 (also an exact match). Examples in this category are exact matches for every considered field. An example is given below.

FL Active Registration Record:
SOUXIEE Q SMITH F 08/19/1968
1267 SLEEPY SONG PL SPRINGFIELD VA 22150

VA Active Registration Record:
SOUXIEE Q SMITH F 08/19/1968
1267 SLEEPY SONG PL SPRINGFIELD VA 22150

Category 2 Matches:

There were 1,533 matches in Category 2: where the Levenshtein distance measure for the name and DOB was equal to 0 (exact match) and the minimum address distance was greater than 0, but less than or equal to 12. Examples in this category commonly have differences in how the zip code, apartment numbers or state code is presented in either the Primary or Mailing address strings. An example is given below.

FL Active Registration Record:
SOUXIEE Q SMITH F 08/19/1968
1267 SLEEPY SONG PLACE SPRINGFIELD VA 22150

VA Active Registration Record:
SOUXIEE Q SMITH F 08/19/1968
1267 SLEEPY SONG PL SPRINGFIELD VA 221504259

Category 3 Matches:

There were 44 matches in Category 3: where the Levenshtein distance measure for the name and DOB was equal to 1 and the minimum address distance was equal 0 (exact match). Examples in this category are most often due to hyphenation or misspellings in the name, or a change in Gender (i.e. from “M”->”U”). An example is given below.

FL Active Registration Record:
BENNIE DAS M 05/14/1945
12345 PEPPERMINT PATTY CREST APT 1000 ASHBURN VA 201475724

VA Active Registration Record:
BENNEE DAS M 05/14/1945
12345 PEPPERMINT PATTY CREST APT 1000 ASHBURN VA 201475724

Category 4 Matches:

There were 140 matches in Category 4: where the Levenshtein distance measure for the name and DOB was equal to 1 and the minimum address distance was greater than 0, but less than or equal to 12. Examples in this category are most often due to hyphenation or misspellings in the name, or a change in Gender (i.e. from “M”->”U”), as well as small differences in how the addresses are presented. An example is given below.

FL Active Registration Record:
BENNIE DAS M 05/14/1945
1267 SLEEPY SONG PLACE SPRINGFIELD VA 22150

VA Active Registration Record:
BENNEE DAS M 05/14/1945
1267 SLEEPY SONG PL SPRINGFIELD VA 221504259

Category 5 Matches:

There were 19 matches in Category 5: where the Levenshtein sistance measure for the name and DOB was equal to 2 and the minimum address distance was equal 0 (exact match). Examples in this category are most often due to a middle name/initial being present in one record and not being present in the other. An example is given below.

FL Active Registration Record:
BENNIE DAS M 05/14/1945
12345 PEPPERMINT PATTY CREST APT 1000 ASHBURN VA 201475724

VA Active Registration Record:
BENNIE C DAS M 05/14/1945
12345 PEPPERMINT PATTY CREST APT 1000 ASHBURN VA 201475724

Category 6 Matches:

There were 68 matches in Category 3: where the Levenshtein Distance measure was equal to 1 and the minimum address distance was greater than 0, but less than or equal to 12. Examples in this category are most often due to a middle name/initial being present in one record and not being present in the other, as well as small differences in how the addresses are presented. An example is given below.

FL Active Registration Record:
BENNIE C DAS M 05/14/1945
1267 SLEEPY SONG PLACE SPRINGFIELD VA 22150

VA Active Registration Record:
BENNIE DAS M 05/14/1945
1267 SLEEPY SONG PL SPRINGFIELD VA 221504259

Table of Results by VA Locality:

Row LabelsLD=0, AD=0LD=0, 0<AD<=12LD=1, AD=0LD=1, 0<AD<=12LD=2, AD=0LD=2, 0<AD<=12
ACCOMACK COUNTY381100
ALBEMARLE COUNTY13240100
ALEXANDRIA CITY15521611
ALLEGHANY COUNTY130100
AMELIA COUNTY220000
AMHERST COUNTY320000
APPOMATTOX COUNTY500010
ARLINGTON COUNTY27532826
AUGUSTA COUNTY380110
BEDFORD COUNTY4150100
BOTETOURT COUNTY720000
BRISTOL CITY320000
BRUNSWICK COUNTY120000
BUCHANAN COUNTY100000
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY010000
CAMPBELL COUNTY231100
CAROLINE COUNTY020000
CARROLL COUNTY160100
CHARLOTTE COUNTY140000
CHARLOTTESVILLE CITY460001
CHESAPEAKE CITY278741314
CHESTERFIELD COUNTY28492503
CLARKE COUNTY020000
COLONIAL HEIGHTS CITY011000
CRAIG COUNTY210000
CULPEPER COUNTY680000
CUMBERLAND COUNTY200000
DANVILLE CITY210000
DICKENSON COUNTY130000
DINWIDDIE COUNTY030100
ESSEX COUNTY200000
FAIRFAX CITY360000
FAIRFAX COUNTY108259714415
FALLS CHURCH CITY220001
FAUQUIER COUNTY4141000
FLOYD COUNTY111000
FLUVANNA COUNTY230200
FRANKLIN CITY310000
FRANKLIN COUNTY560101
FREDERICK COUNTY1090200
FREDERICKSBURG CITY170000
GALAX CITY200000
GILES COUNTY000100
GLOUCESTER COUNTY6170110
GOOCHLAND COUNTY221010
GRAYSON COUNTY130100
GREENE COUNTY050000
HALIFAX COUNTY120100
HAMPTON CITY10160600
HANOVER COUNTY261210
HARRISONBURG CITY160100
HENRICO COUNTY24330301
HENRY COUNTY350100
ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY4130102
JAMES CITY COUNTY23251100
KING GEORGE COUNTY241001
KING WILLIAM COUNTY200000
LANCASTER COUNTY211001
LEE COUNTY310000
LEXINGTON CITY020000
LOUDOUN COUNTY29731122
LOUISA COUNTY520000
LYNCHBURG CITY6150200
MADISON COUNTY200000
MANASSAS CITY300000
MANASSAS PARK CITY100000
MARTINSVILLE CITY210000
MATHEWS COUNTY030000
MECKLENBURG COUNTY320000
MIDDLESEX COUNTY040100
MONTGOMERY COUNTY6111100
NELSON COUNTY120100
NEW KENT COUNTY060000
NEWPORT NEWS CITY8170102
NORFOLK CITY145801101
NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY211000
NOTTOWAY COUNTY010000
ORANGE COUNTY561000
PAGE COUNTY120000
PATRICK COUNTY020000
PETERSBURG CITY210000
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY370100
POQUOSON CITY100000
PORTSMOUTH CITY591100
POWHATAN COUNTY220100
PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY020000
PRINCE GEORGE COUNTY111101
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY408321133
PULASKI COUNTY220000
RADFORD CITY020000
RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY021000
RICHMOND CITY12291300
ROANOKE CITY14121200
ROANOKE COUNTY14150001
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY222000
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY150101
RUSSELL COUNTY030001
SALEM CITY210000
SCOTT COUNTY200000
SHENANDOAH COUNTY010101
SMYTH COUNTY120000
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY020100
SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY10191100
STAFFORD COUNTY20480404
STAUNTON CITY120000
SUFFOLK CITY12310001
TAZEWELL COUNTY050100
VIRGINIA BEACH CITY46177111112
WARREN COUNTY240000
WASHINGTON COUNTY351100
WAYNESBORO CITY130000
WESTMORELAND COUNTY520001
WILLIAMSBURG CITY110000
WINCHESTER CITY060000
WISE COUNTY070000
WYTHE COUNTY000100
YORK COUNTY12352200
Grand Total6981533441401968

Tabulated Results by FL County Code:

Row LabelsLD=0, AD=0LD=0, 0<AD<=12LD=1, AD=0LD=1, 0<AD<=12LD=2, AD=0LD=2, 0<AD<=12
MON2200100
ALA0230200
BAK020000
BAY7400410
BRA220000
BRE41391123
BRO12950608
CHA71146121
CIT160100
CLA7472503
CLL1520101
CLM000100
DAD50592621
DES110000
DUV2811442119
ESC1910311003
FLA5110122
FRA110000
GAD100100
GLA100000
GUL040000
HAM300000
HAR310000
HEN100000
HER8160201
HIG010000
HIL296521014
HOL010000
IND9111010
JAC020000
LAK1100101
LEE0460301
LEO3592010
LEV301000
MAD001000
MAN31211101
MRN26160101
MRT4062211
NAS4120100
OKA50313012
OKE100000
ORA11390904
OSC4151000
PAL358931002
PAS0300301
PIN4880603
POL0620902
PUT210000
SAN13420302
SAR17181120
SEM53345303
STJ8221503
STL60204221
SUM2290301
SUW330000
TAY020000
VOL0510303
WAK110000
WAL160000
Grand Total6981533441401968

Addendum + Updates:

In response to a number of questions we have received on this topic, and continued work to dig into this data:

  1. The number of matches above has been corrected from the original 2,527 to 2,502 (a difference of 25) due to a “fat-finger” error in tallying the total number of category 5 matches.
  2. For the strict constraints given above, the number of matched records where there is a vote recorded for the same election date in both the VA and FL data is 13.
  3. We also computed the number of exact [First Name + Middle Initial + Last Name + Gender + Full DOB] matches without requiring our additional address filter. This criteria is more strict in the initial match, but more loose in the subsequent filtering.
    • This results in a total of 17,701 matches when considering only Active voters on each of the FL and VA voter lists.
      • There are 343 of these matches where both FL and VA records have a history of votes cast in the same election.
    • The number jumps to 81,155 if we consider either Active or Inactive registrations.
      • There are 382 of these matches where both FL and VA records have a history of votes cast in the same election.