Categories
Election Data Analysis Election Forensics Election Integrity technical

2023 VA General Election DAL File Metrics

Below you will find the current summary data and graphics from the VA 2023 General Election Daily Absentee List files. We pull the DAL file everyday and track the count of each specific ballot category in each daily file.

Note: Page may take a moment to load the graphics objects.

Linear Scale Plot:

Place your cursor over the series name in the legend at right to see the series highlighted in the graphic. Place your cursor over a specific data point to see that data points value.

Logarithmic Scale Plot:

The logarithmic plot is the same underlying data as the linear scale plot, except with a logarithmic y-scale in order to be able to compress the dynamic range and see the shape of all of the data curves in a single graphic. Place your cursor over the series name in the legend at right to see the series highlighted in the graphic. Place your cursor over a specific data point to see that data points value.

Summary Data Table:

The underlying data for the graphics above is provided in the summary data table.

Additional Data:

Additional CSV datasets stratified by Locality, City, Congressional District, State House District, State Senate District, and Precinct are available here.

Data column descriptions:
  • ISSUED” := Number of DAL file records where BALLOT_STATUS= “ISSUED”
  • NOT_ISSUED” := Number of DAL file records where BALLOT_STATUS= “NOT ISSUED”
  • PROVISIONAL” := Number of DAL file records where BALLOT_STATUS= “PROVISIONAL” and APP_STATUS=”APPROVED”
  • DELETED” := Number of DAL file records where BALLOT_STATUS= “DELETED”
  • MARKED” := Number of DAL file records where BALLOT_STATUS= “MARKED” and APP_STATUS=”APPROVED”
  • ON_MACHINE” := Number of DAL file records where BALLOT_STATUS= “ON_MACHINE” and APP_STATUS=”APPROVED”
  • PRE_PROCESSED” := Number of DAL file records where BALLOT_STATUS= “PRE-PROCESSED” and APP_STATUS=”APPROVED”
  • FWAB” := Number of DAL file records where BALLOT_STATUS= “FWAB” and APP_STATUS=”APPROVED”
  • MAIL_IN” := The sum of “MARKED” + “PRE_PROCESSED”
  • COUNTABLE” := The sum of “PROVISIONAL” + “MARKED” + “PRE_PROCESSED” + “ON_MACHINE” + “FWAB”
  • MILITARY” := Number of DAL file records where VOTER_TYPE= “MILITARY”
  • OVERSEAS” := Number of DAL file records where VOTER_TYPE= “OVERSEAS”
  • TEMPORARY” := Number of DAL file records where VOTER_TYPE= “TEMPORARY”
  • MILITARY_COUNTABLE” := Number of DAL file records where VOTER_TYPE= “MILITARY” and where COUNTABLE is True
  • OVERSEAS_COUNTABLE” := Number of DAL file records where VOTER_TYPE= “OVERSEAS” and where COUNTABLE is True
  • TEMPORARY_COUNTABLE” := Number of DAL file records where VOTER_TYPE= “TEMPORARY” and where COUNTABLE is True
Editorial Note:

When we first started receiving DAL data files on Sept-14-2023 after our purchase from ELECT, we noticed that there were a dozen or so records that were marked as being in a countable state, including records that should correspond to In-Person-Early votes. This is problematic as in person early voting facilities were not opened until Sept-22-2023. We respectfully raised this issue with the dept of elections and they acknowledged the error and directed registrars to correct the issues before the official start of early voting. (This can be observed in the logarithmic plot with the Overseas_Countable, On-Machine, Provisional, and Pre-Processed counts being reset to 0 on 9-21-2023.) We’d like to take a moment to thank the folks at ELECT and the registrars for listening to our concerns and correcting these errors before the start of early voting. Credit where credit is due.


All data purchased by Electoral Process Education Corp. (EPEC) from the VA Dept of Elections (ELECT). All processing performed by EPEC.

If you like the work that EPEC is doing, please support us with a donation.

Categories
Election Data Analysis Election Forensics Election Integrity Interesting mathematics technical

VA voter registrations greater than census determined eligible voters

One of our volunteers brought to our attention the following press release: https://www.honestelections.org/honest-elections-project-supports-new-pre-litigation-notices-against-arizona-and-virginia/. They claim that “… 43 counties and independent cities in Virginia and four counties in Arizona claim to have more voters than voting-age adult citizens.”

Attempt to directly validate the claim

After reading through the press release we decided to independently try to verify the claims in the release. Note that an analysis like this has been on our list of things-to-do, but there are only so many hours in the day! The fact this press release was issued gave us a well deserved prod to complete this analysis.

EPEC has purchased the entire statewide registered voter list data from the VA Department of Elections (ELECT) and has current records as of 2023-08-01. Eligible parties can purchase data from ELECT via their website here.

The necessary data from the US Census office can be downloaded here and included the estimates of the eligible voting age citizens in each county. From the documentation on the census site, the “cvap_est” field in the census data represents “The rounded estimate of the total number of United States citizens 18 years of age or older for that geographic area and group.”

It is therefore a straightforward process to accumulate the number of registrant records in each county, as well as accumulating the number of eligible voting age citizens and compute the registration percent “REG_PCT” as (# Registered / # Eligible * 100). The below table has the results of this direct computation for each county.

The results are only slightly different than the results presented by Honest Elections Project, but still show significant issues with 38 counties being over 100%.

Adjusting for population growth since 2020 census

As the census redistricting data is circa 2020, and the eligible voter data was estimated for 2021, we can attempt to account for population shifts since the 2020 census data was collected and the voter eligibility data was computed. The US Census bureau also makes available the estimates of population growth by county year-over-year since the date of the last census here, which we can use to find the recent rates of growth or decline for each county. We can then use these rates to adjust the number of eligible voter estimates to scale with the most recent rates of population change. This is admittedly an approximation and assumes a linear relationship, but it is arguably better than taking the 2020 census and 2021 eligible voter estimates and applying them directly to the latest (2023) RVL.

The REG_PCT_ADJ column in the table below represents this adjusted estimate.

Active vs inactive registrations

An additional consideration that can be made with this data, is to attempt to consider only “Active” voter registrations vs registrations with any status assigned. Note that “Inactive” voter registrations can be immediately returned to “Active” status by simply having any type of interaction with the department of elections (or through DMV, etc), and the registrant will then be allowed to vote. Because of this easy ability to change “Inactive” records to “Active”, it is most appropriate (IMO) to include them in this analysis. However, for completeness, and in order to bound the scope of the issue, the corresponding REG_PCT_ACTIVE and REG_PCT_ADJ_ACTIVE columns have also been computed which only consider “Active” voters.

Results

Even the most forgiving analysis we could compute with the official data from US Census and VA ELECT, which only considers active voters and attempts to adjust for population change since the census, still results in multiple (6) counties in VA having more than 100% registered voters than eligible voters, and many counties that had over 90%.

The most appropriate metric to consider, in my opinion, is the Adjusted and either Active or Inactive status results, as inactive status registrations can still be converted to active status and voted. There were 36 localities with over 100% in this category and 59 between 90% and 100%. There are 133 voting localities in total in VA.

The summary tabulated data and graphics for each of the methods of analyzing the data is presented below.

Tabulated Data Results:
LOCALITY_NAMEN_REGN_REG_ACTIVEN_ELIGIBLEN_ELIGIBLE_ADJREG_PCTREG_PCT_ADJREG_PCT_ACTIVEREG_PCT_ADJ_ACTIVE
GOOCHLAND COUNTY22032213081984020314.622534217111.048387096774108.453897988458107.399193548387104.889962705976
LOUDOUN COUNTY291468272527259775261988.121593707112.200173226831111.252372140753104.908863439515104.022655050994
FAIRFAX CITY17867165781589016179.2525931696112.441787287602110.431553603056104.32976714915102.464560118177
SURRY COUNTY5635544953255327.44865113427105.821596244131105.772957545076102.328638497653102.281605264085
NEW KENT COUNTY19258186861754518281.8036615372109.763465374751105.339715689632106.503277286976102.210921558649
KING WILLIAM COUNTY14025135921338013590.9343586927104.820627802691103.193788078519101.584454409567100.007840824473
MATHEWS COUNTY7353709271457099.01111761264102.911126662001103.57780651670299.2582225332499.9012381091326
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY9801930694359326.0652878146103.879173290938105.09255186971498.632750397456399.7848472298299
HANOVER COUNTY86583838008328084111.898838322103.96613832853102.937873470706100.62439961575499.6291858314583
RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY6194595259455996.95979561651104.188393608074103.285668256898100.11774600504699.250290194552
JAMES CITY COUNTY63840604186010061066.3951247591106.222961730449104.541949577299100.52911813643998.9382128690675
FAUQUIER COUNTY56031528055296553424.3705925266105.788728405551104.87910176304199.697913716605398.840659074394
FALLS CHURCH CITY11130102531034510373.4476832119107.588206863219107.29316173264799.110681488641998.8388847479627
ACCOMACK COUNTY25327241922465024522.1840906366102.74645030426103.2819911407198.141987829614698.6535290273647
CRAIG COUNTY3917374738303807.2210828548102.271540469974102.88343951549397.832898172323898.4182404555912
CHARLES CITY COUNTY5728558457005677.65042979943100.491228070175100.88680292707597.964912280701898.3505425182942
ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY31039296652971030281.6797400553104.473241332885102.5009189267199.848535846516397.9635220194221
SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY105580100062100440102345.441485999105.117483074472103.16043242086599.623655913978597.7688879418126
LANCASTER COUNTY9201873690658943.53432452276101.50027578599102.87879115945696.370656370656497.6795043548532
CLARKE COUNTY12213114891161011882.4255832663105.193798449612102.78204491513398.957795004306696.6890128576076
POWHATAN COUNTY24346236242419524441.048216348100.6240958875899.611112356938897.640008266170796.6570655680737
LOUISA COUNTY29799287752900529810.5293092847102.73745905878399.961324707907599.207033270125896.5262968042565
FAIRFAX COUNTY784080721354749510747334.300776511104.612346733199104.91690254084596.243412362743796.523603861148
HENRICO COUNTY239597227831236070236137.172406976101.494048375482101.46517702306596.509933494302596.4824799406588
BEDFORD COUNTY62932605996243562871.2603534819100.796027868984100.09660955765397.05934171538496.3858520718266
NELSON COUNTY11827113841195511835.4598.929318276871699.928604320072395.223755750731996.1856118694262
FREDERICK COUNTY68222638686571566439.8543302061103.814958533059102.68234433648397.18937837632296.1290488124432
NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY1039599041009010304.4313465051103.022794846383100.87892917570598.156590683845496.1139888942937
POQUOSON CITY9547910995009479.6573875803100.494736842105100.71039078382795.884210526315896.0899706347414
ORANGE COUNTY28633273512786528465.9231224287102.756145702494100.58693644626598.155392068903796.0833059316801
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY317403289258300255301330.510742882105.711145526303105.33384064477796.337446503805195.9935982874356
CHESTERFIELD COUNTY268258253920259725264714.168974025103.285398017134101.3387387005897.764943690441895.9223304835323
STAFFORD COUNTY111503103640106940108128.634023171104.266878623527103.12069601850996.914157471479395.8488016946475
AMELIA COUNTY1018099031028010370.952987928399.027237354085698.158771058449696.332684824902795.4878496848553
BOTETOURT COUNTY26424256712691027035.137004444298.193979933110497.739471398485295.395763656633294.9542071703948
GREENE COUNTY14956144321521515272.161166064398.297732500821697.929820392631694.853762734143994.4987408335423
ALBEMARLE COUNTY84004791078326583844.7847760722100.887527772774100.18989281724995.006305170239694.3493387349904
CULPEPER COUNTY37104354793720037612.219020172999.74193548387198.64879277688995.373655913978594.3283882851241
EMPORIA CITY3987371040353933.8020277481398.8104089219331101.35232967690391.945477075588694.3107958618791
KING AND QUEEN COUNTY5385515754305470.7168566286799.17127071823298.43316956671294.972375690607794.2655256184836
GLOUCESTER COUNTY30265290683058030862.894891518298.969914977109298.062738788374295.055591890124394.1842950966615
WESTMORELAND COUNTY14199136041447014454.550501815198.127159640635898.232041170820394.01520387007694.1156904069188
WARREN COUNTY30580288713036030718.0311057939100.72463768115999.550651194672995.095520421607493.9871435788555
MADISON COUNTY10409100651077010808.602150537696.648096564531196.302924791086493.454038997214593.1202745722244
FLUVANNA COUNTY20994201972141521693.887289995398.034088255895496.773804156721694.312397851972993.0999582048827
KING GEORGE COUNTY19822185771974519984.620303757100.38997214484799.186272737308894.08457837427292.9564821229435
APPOMATTOX COUNTY12256117451241512679.986583729798.719291180024296.656253688203794.603302456705692.6262809699701
ROANOKE COUNTY73141691367480074926.018335727897.782085561497397.617625525315592.42780748663192.2723528297154
SUFFOLK CITY71421654886949571088.6638879661102.77142240449100.46749522899794.234117562414692.1215794732158
HIGHLAND COUNTY1879181519201971.4056224899697.864583333333395.312703715775794.5312592.0662891134289
ARLINGTON COUNTY175053155984169220169528.629042616103.446992081314103.25866550598792.17822952369792.0104178750769
YORK COUNTY50591474655159051709.59579071698.063578212831997.836773284317992.004264392324191.7914736601402
FLOYD COUNTY11879114771242512513.126249274695.605633802816994.932311585113592.370221327967891.7196851639319
SHENANDOAH COUNTY32321309583366033764.368600682696.021984551396395.725172243696591.972667855020891.6883723375006
CUMBERLAND COUNTY7381713477507789.964933993495.238709677419494.75010558508792.051612903225891.579359604933
CAROLINE COUNTY23033218052340023813.572383924698.431623931623996.722153352969893.183760683760791.565430202818
ESSEX COUNTY8291790186108673.6448066717296.295005807200995.588419687449191.765389082462391.0920400374546
MIDDLESEX COUNTY8708830889959137.7910323059896.809338521400895.296554377458692.362423568649290.9191288203865
DINWIDDIE COUNTY20876199322184021966.364513018395.586080586080695.036208598049491.263736263736390.7387291519602
FRANKLIN CITY5877556460606148.7229330708796.98019801980295.580823269667891.815181518151890.4903353194541
CHESAPEAKE CITY176334164440181540182080.13664946697.132312438030296.844171607511290.580588300099290.3118830125735
CHARLOTTE COUNTY8391809990058968.2672279118293.181565796779693.563224497646589.938922820655290.3073001080252
CAMPBELL COUNTY40938390804350543321.159458239394.099528789794394.498855783080889.82875531548190.2099585715667
MECKLENBURG COUNTY22837219072412524290.610561056194.661139896373194.015751240989490.806217616580390.1871113734884
BATH COUNTY3353320735903556.6209933936993.398328690807894.274875119617589.331476323119890.1698552068635
HALIFAX COUNTY25042241782703026938.720303335592.64520902700792.959129899349289.4487606363389.7518505992518
WYTHE COUNTY20849201882258022508.736879432692.33392382639592.626254914600789.40655447298589.6896174500436
VIRGINIA BEACH CITY328860303604342075339791.41743699396.136812102609196.782903606145488.753635898560389.3501084547837
RUSSELL COUNTY19126185892093520829.412362669691.358968235013191.822081521020688.793885837114989.2439963083892
ALEXANDRIA CITY11121697404109245109471.650837935101.804201565289101.59342546560189.161060002746188.976460347894
SCOTT COUNTY15973155351747017465.120566055391.431024613623491.456568762798388.923869490555288.9487131866319
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY44900432604884548732.824762855791.923431262155892.135024428591988.56587163476388.7697362312001
PAGE COUNTY17104165491878518744.748119826991.051370774554291.24689161284988.096885813148888.286062283737
CARROLL COUNTY21244206452333023390.991365966191.058722674667890.821289562399888.491213030432988.2604746288714
FRANKLIN COUNTY39895385634375043800.899836393491.188571428571491.082603665717388.14488.0415702509351
GILES COUNTY12058115491325513150.296369995290.969445492267191.693750929542187.129385137683987.8231157310733
COLONIAL HEIGHTS CITY12913119651358513641.672521681995.053367684946694.658481058508788.075082811924987.7091865457335
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY13173126671454514460.328214226390.567205225163391.097517323570787.088346510828587.5982883122804
HOPEWELL CITY15555144901678016647.325988334492.69964243146693.438429756827986.352800953516187.0410059258396
AMHERST COUNTY22734218972503025187.877735656790.827007590890990.257703481770887.483020375549386.9346763939621
PATRICK COUNTY12896125271447514454.518055241189.091537132987989.21777917959786.542314335060486.664944151893
MANASSAS CITY23663216292505524982.937215012394.444222710037994.716645190065586.326082618239986.5750884848044
PORTSMOUTH CITY68285630857350073041.556566091192.904761904761993.487876231406585.829931972789186.3686413130011
AUGUSTA COUNTY54910530036118561409.98534289989.744218354171889.415425998549686.62744136634886.310067823732
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY56871542636224062923.041079673391.373714652956390.381836326044487.183483290488486.2370906887544
ALLEGHANY COUNTY10965103951226512110.707867412189.400733795352690.539711799216684.753363228699685.8331330736759
WASHINGTON COUNTY39282378314407544210.191846522889.12535450935988.852815062121585.833238797504385.5707664226648
WAYNESBORO CITY15564142921655016705.275269959394.042296072507693.168174414871186.35649546827885.5538132059456
HAMPTON CITY9992989709105410105555.29079341694.800303576510894.669816405103685.104828763874484.9876868565225
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY16203156511845518417.501435575887.797344892982987.976102820884484.80628555946984.9789536042499
HENRY COUNTY36321342474065040334.796007634889.350553505535190.048800527279184.248462484624884.9068382384221
FREDERICKSBURG CITY19199175492057020786.123058542493.334953816237292.364506579353985.313563441905784.4265183583041
BUCHANAN COUNTY14607140091703016593.553194703285.772166764533288.028162676229582.260716382853884.4243534559663
CHARLOTTESVILLE CITY33751304393656536279.548327137592.304115957883293.030375394044983.246273759059283.9012650475344
MARTINSVILLE CITY9035826997809907.0411100450292.382413087934691.1977642935184.550102249488883.4658896450509
STAUNTON CITY18003168792005020246.177834951189.790523690773188.920487347104884.184538653366683.3688221925113
DICKENSON COUNTY1007194531147011364.83901241787.802964254577188.615421555876382.414995640802183.1775970576605
LUNENBURG COUNTY8036776493209346.4132699841686.223175965665285.979506446686683.304721030042983.069299160288
PULASKI COUNTY23605228212764527561.594001419885.386145776813285.644538551667482.550189907759182.8000006052786
LEE COUNTY15524149131814018075.041022619185.578831312017685.886388753271882.210584343991282.5060368125189
BRISTOL CITY12449110901354513449.919567124991.908453303802192.558174328630281.8752307124482.4540246850758
SMYTH COUNTY20124194292373523613.919425675784.786180745734285.220922614476981.858015588792982.277743265587
GRAYSON COUNTY10885104881274012750.80365296885.439560439560485.367168189953882.323390894819582.253638950504
BLAND COUNTY4624431952855258.485191778687.492904446546887.934069059078281.721854304635882.1339196077333
MANASSAS PARK CITY89388188102109983.4697342231687.541625857002989.527992150471480.195886385896282.0155739234795
NEWPORT NEWS CITY122432110842136045135707.76650213289.993752067330790.217386341021481.474512109963681.6769760913118
PETERSBURG CITY23678206262531525335.484460694793.533478174995193.457853694228381.477384949634681.411508163576
BRUNSWICK COUNTY11073107061320013152.087114337683.886363636363684.191960589501681.106060606060681.4015289507093
COVINGTON CITY3797357644354394.7592043273485.614430665163586.398362764932580.631341600901981.369645838135
WISE COUNTY24615235812921528980.998543702984.25466370015484.934961653860780.715385931884381.3671066731541
DANVILLE CITY28416260103213532023.52546252688.42694880970988.73476480049880.939785280846481.2215383045099
WINCHESTER CITY18077158671973019604.384847945991.621895590471492.208963148843980.420679168778580.9359749008522
ROANOKE CITY65501589027354072871.955561856989.068534131085189.885058655246180.095186293173880.8294487856874
NORTON CITY2600244330553036.4899476728285.106382978723485.625180547449379.967266775777480.4547369528534
SALEM CITY17727162712009020223.912203202688.237929318068787.653663751530580.990542558486880.4542654087636
RICHMOND CITY158141142368177060178454.84090649589.314921495538288.616817115575780.406641816333479.778166440773
LYNCHBURG CITY55508490296146061591.281629970490.315652456882590.123144917623779.773836641718279.6037989508931
GALAX CITY4016376547304780.4324973719884.904862579281284.009135202887679.598308668076178.7585642527071
TAZEWELL COUNTY27315253713249532303.55231295484.059086013232884.557263967054278.076627173411378.5393499581963
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY11026104361362013653.768595041380.954478707782780.754261530434576.622613803230576.4331102241624
SUSSEX COUNTY7121683691859072.8634850166577.528579205225978.486797599897274.425694066412675.3455621953234
RICHMOND COUNTY5629544272007224.6657089181178.180555555555677.913639561918775.583333333333375.3252845080764
BUENA VISTA CITY4380390052255206.0430839002383.827751196172284.132995624742774.641148325358974.9129413097024
NOTTOWAY COUNTY965192721243512415.051655544177.611580217129177.736285500593874.563731403297174.6835394427009
PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY13443127101788017855.570433119375.184563758389375.287429490717171.085011185682371.182268007663
PRINCE GEORGE COUNTY24912227513244032542.605702590876.794081381011176.551952316518770.13255240443969.9114269088438
NORFOLK CITY138210126445184395182802.31049888374.953225412836675.606265381883468.572900566718269.170351104929
MONTGOMERY COUNTY60377545937903079093.969241665476.397570542831876.335782081593169.078830823737869.02296157776
WILLIAMSBURG CITY1012787211298513178.84306220177.989988448209576.842860577389167.162110127069766.174245788033
GREENSVILLE COUNTY6395615495959438.6146161934866.649296508598267.753587364700164.13757165190265.2002465429811
HARRISONBURG CITY25205228333872038443.460777083465.095557851239765.563816291547358.969524793388459.3937162223725
RADFORD CITY917184181431514484.613106033164.065665385958863.31546402285458.805448829898758.1168439804149
LEXINGTON CITY4087341064706490.8906228978963.168469860896562.965165143629252.704791344667752.5351634792698