Election Data Analysis Election Forensics Election Integrity Interesting programming technical

The 300K VA Ballots Outstanding and At-Risk Claim is Incorrect.

There’s a (IMO frivolous) lawsuit by Mark Elias (here) against the USPO that is causing people to think that there are > 300K outstanding mail-in ballots in VA. According to the VA Dept of Elections data, this is just factually incorrect. There are not 300K outstanding absentee ballots floating around. There is < 100K as per the 11/01/2021 DAL file entries. (Light blue line, logarithmic y axis)

Of the 3 Localities listed in the lawsuit, from the 11/01/2021 DAL File:

Total Registered Voters817386196166696
Total Outstanding Mail In Ballots254510611151
Registered / Outstanding * 1003.1%1.7%1.7%

The graph of the breakouts of these 3 counties over time as the DAL files have been updated during the early voting period is shown below. As we see increases in the number of mail in ballots that are in a status state of “Marked” or “Pre-Processed”, we see corresponding decreases in the outstanding “Issued” ballots in all 3 localities. We are NOT seeing a huge buildup of “Issued” ballots that are backlogged as claimed in the lawsuit corresponding to an “October Slowdown” by the USPO. His lawsuit is bunk.